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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."