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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.