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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.